A study of the effects of changing raw material prices and varying interest rates on the stockholding decisions of a small manufacturing company

A study is made of the inventory control procedures in a manufacturing company with an annual turnover of around £5M. The study is made at a time of fluctuating prices and varying interest rates in order to determine both their effect on, and ways of improving, the control procedures. The study concentrates on one of the many stock items carried, peppermint oil, it being fairly typical. The study lists the main costs of establishing and growing peppermint in Washington State. The study reveals the importance of price forecasting in the determination of timing and quantity of purchases. Various price forecasting methods including that due to Box and Jenkins are tested and found wanting for one reason or another. The ordinary economic order quantity formula is modified to take account of fluctuating prices and varying interest rates. It is then tested with an assumption of perfect price forecasts against the performance of the firm’s buyer over the years 1971-1978. The results indicate that the buyer possesses faculties which cannot yet, if ever, be emulated by machine based formulas. Normally economic models are devised with the assumption that the purchaser is at least risk-neutral if not risk-averse. This study reveals a pronounced bias in the opposite direction, namely risk-preference, in the case of essential oil traders. The study, in examining the market structure, also shows that there are peppermint farmers in the western United States who are both willing and able to make direct contracts with importers in the United Kingdom in order to eliminate the risks associated with dealing through second and third parties. The absence of a formal controlled market for the particular oil studied is noted together with the buyer’s inability uO ’hedge’ except with purchases of other equally risky oils. It is recommended that the possibility of such a market being organised be further investigated

Predicting success in graduate entry medical students undertaking a graduate entry medical program (GEM)

Background: Success in undergraduate medical courses in the UK can be predicted by school exit examination (A level) grades. There are no documented predictors of success in UK graduate entry medicine (GEM) courses. This study looks at the examination performance of GEM students to identify factors which may predict success; of particular interest was A level score. Methods: Data was collected for students graduating in 2004, 2005 and 2006, including demographic details (age and gender), details of previous academic achievement (A level total score and prior degree) and examination results at several points during the degree course. Results: Study group comprised 285 students. Statistical analyses identified no significant variables when looking at clinical examinations. Analysis of pass/fail data for written examinations showed no relationship with A level score. However, both percentage data for the final written examination and the analysis of the award of honours showed A level scores of AAB or higher were associated with better performance (p < 0.001). Discussion: A prime objective of introducing GEM programs was to diversify admissions to medical school. In trying to achieve this, medical schools have changed selection criteria. The findings in this study justify this by proving that A level score was not associated with success in either clinical examinations or passing written examinations. Despite this, very high achievements at A level do predict high achievement during medical school. Conclusions: This study shows that selecting graduate medical students with the basic requirement of an upper-second class honours degree is justifiable and does not disadvantage students who may not have achieved high scores in school leaver examinations

Retrospective cohort study to evaluate medication use in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in Scotland : protocol for a national observational study

Introduction COVID-19 has caused millions of hospitalisations and deaths globally. A range of vaccines have been developed and are being deployed at scale in the UK to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection, which have reduced risk of infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes. Those with COVID-19 are now being treated with several repurposed drugs based on evidence emerging from recent clinical trials. However, there is currently limited real-world data available related to the use of these drugs in routine clinical practice. The purpose of this study is to address the prevailing knowledge gaps regarding the use of dexamethasone, remdesivir and tocilizumab by conducting an exploratory drug utilisation study, aimed at providing in-depth descriptions of patients receiving these drugs as well as the treatment patterns observed in Scotland. Methods and analysis Retrospective cohort study, comprising adult patients admitted to hospital with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 across five Scottish Health Boards using data from in-hospital ePrescribing linked to the Early Estimation of Vaccine and Anti-Viral Effectiveness (EAVE II) COVID-19 surveillance platform. The primary outcome will be exposure to the medicines of interest (dexamethasone, remdesivir, tocilizumab), either alone or in combination; exposure will be described in terms of drug(s) of choice; prescribed and administered dose; treatment duration; and any changes in treatment, for example, dose escalation and/or switching to an alternative drug. Analyses will primarily be descriptive in nature. Ethics and dissemination Ethical and information governance approvals have been obtained by the National Research Ethics Service Committee, South East Scotland 02 and the Public Benefit and Privacy Panel for Health and Social Care, respectively. Findings from this study will be presented at academic and clinical conferences, and to the funders and other interested parties as appropriate; study findings will also be published in peer-reviewed journals. Publications will be available on the EAVE II website (https://www.ed.ac.uk/usher/eave-ii/key-outputs/our-publications), alongside lay summaries and infographics aimed at the general public. Press releases will also be considered, if appropriate

Pleasure and meaningful discourse: an overview of research issues

The concept of pleasure has emerged as a multi-faceted social and cultural phenomenon in studies of media audiences since the 1980s. In these studies different forms of pleasure have been identified as explaining audience activity and commitment. In the diverse studies pleasure has emerged as a multi-faceted social and cultural concept that needs to be contextualized carefully. Genre and genre variations, class, gender, (sub-)cultural identity and generation all seem to be instrumental in determining the kind and variety of pleasures experienced in the act of viewing. This body of research has undoubtedly contributed to a better understanding of the complexity of audience activities, but it is exactly the diversity of the concept that is puzzling and poses a challenge to its further use. If pleasure is maintained as a key concept in audience analysis that holds much explanatory power, it needs a stronger theoretical foundation. The article maps the ways in which the concept of pleasure has been used by cultural theorists, who have paved the way for its application in reception analysis, and it goes on to explore the ways in which the concept has been used in empirical studies. Central to our discussion is the division between the ‘public knowledge’ and the ‘popular culture’ projects in reception analysis which, we argue, have major implications for the way in which pleasure has come to be understood as divorced from politics, power and ideology. Finally, we suggest ways of bridging the gap between these two projects in an effort to link pleasure to the concepts of hegemony and ideology

Biomarkers of coagulation, endothelial function, and fibrinolysis in critically ill patients with COVID-19: A single-center prospective longitudinal study

Background: Immunothrombosis and coagulopathy in the lung microvasculature may lead to lung injury and disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aim to identify biomarkers of coagulation, endothelial function, and fibrinolysis that are associated with disease severity and may have prognostic potential. Methods: We performed a single-center prospective study of 14 adult COVID-19(+) intensive care unit patients who were age- and sex-matched to 14 COVID-19(−) intensive care unit patients, and healthy controls. Daily blood draws, clinical data, and patient characteristics were collected. Baseline values for 10 biomarkers of interest were compared between the three groups, and visualized using Fisher\u27s linear discriminant function. Linear repeated-measures mixed models were used to screen biomarkers for associations with mortality. Selected biomarkers were further explored and entered into an unsupervised longitudinal clustering machine learning algorithm to identify trends and targets that may be used for future predictive modelling efforts. Results: Elevated D-dimer was the strongest contributor in distinguishing COVID-19 status; however, D-dimer was not associated with survival. Variable selection identified clot lysis time, and antigen levels of soluble thrombomodulin (sTM), plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1), and plasminogen as biomarkers associated with death. Longitudinal multivariate k-means clustering on these biomarkers alone identified two clusters of COVID-19(+) patients: low (30%) and high (100%) mortality groups. Biomarker trajectories that characterized the high mortality cluster were higher clot lysis times (inhibited fibrinolysis), higher sTM and PAI-1 levels, and lower plasminogen levels. Conclusions: Longitudinal trajectories of clot lysis time, sTM, PAI-1, and plasminogen may have predictive ability for mortality in COVID-19

Hierarchical folding and reorganization of chromosomes are linked to transcriptional changes in cellular differentiation

Mammalian chromosomes fold into arrays of megabase‐sized topologically associating domains (TADs), which are arranged into compartments spanning multiple megabases of genomic DNA. TADs have internal substructures that are often cell type specific, but their higher‐order organization remains elusive. Here, we investigate TAD higher‐order interactions with Hi‐C through neuronal differentiation and show that they form a hierarchy of domains‐within‐domains (metaTADs) extending across genomic scales up to the range of entire chromosomes. We find that TAD interactions are well captured by tree‐like, hierarchical structures irrespective of cell type. metaTAD tree structures correlate with genetic, epigenomic and expression features, and structural tree rearrangements during differentiation are linked to transcriptional state changes. Using polymer modelling, we demonstrate that hierarchical folding promotes efficient chromatin packaging without the loss of contact specificity, highlighting a role far beyond the simple need for packing efficiency

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Thiopurine monotherapy is effective in ulcerative colitis but significantly less so in Crohn’s disease: long-term outcomes for 11 928 patients in the UK inflammatory bowel disease bioresource

Objective: Thiopurines are widely used as maintenance therapy in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) but the evidence base for their use is sparse and their role increasingly questioned. Using the largest series reported to date, we assessed the long-term effectiveness of thiopurines in ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn’s disease (CD), including their impact on need for surgery. Design: Outcomes were assessed in 11 928 patients (4968 UC, 6960 CD) in the UK IBD BioResource initiated on thiopurine monotherapy with the intention of maintaining medically induced remission. Effectiveness was assessed retrospectively using patient-level data and a definition that required avoidance of escalation to biological therapy or surgery while on thiopurines. Analyses included overall effectiveness, time-to-event analysis for treatment escalation and comparison of surgery rates in patients tolerant or intolerant of thiopurines. Results: Using 68 132 patient-years of exposure, thiopurine monotherapy appeared effective for the duration of treatment in 2617/4968 (52.7%) patients with UC compared with 2378/6960 (34.2%) patients with CD (p<0.0001). This difference was corroborated in a multivariable analysis: after adjusting for variables including treatment era, thiopurine monotherapy was less effective in CD than UC (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.51, p<0.0001). Thiopurine intolerance was associated with increased risk of surgery in UC (HR 2.44, p<0.0001); with a more modest impact on need for surgery in CD (HR=1.23, p=0.0015). Conclusion: Thiopurine monotherapy is an effective long-term treatment for UC but significantly less effective in CD

Analysis of the genetic phylogeny of multifocal prostate cancer identifies multiple independent clonal expansions in neoplastic and morphologically normal prostate tissue.

Genome-wide DNA sequencing was used to decrypt the phylogeny of multiple samples from distinct areas of cancer and morphologically normal tissue taken from the prostates of three men. Mutations were present at high levels in morphologically normal tissue distant from the cancer, reflecting clonal expansions, and the underlying mutational processes at work in morphologically normal tissue were also at work in cancer. Our observations demonstrate the existence of ongoing abnormal mutational processes, consistent with field effects, underlying carcinogenesis. This mechanism gives rise to extensive branching evolution and cancer clone mixing, as exemplified by the coexistence of multiple cancer lineages harboring distinct ERG fusions within a single cancer nodule. Subsets of mutations were shared either by morphologically normal and malignant tissues or between different ERG lineages, indicating earlier or separate clonal cell expansions. Our observations inform on the origin of multifocal disease and have implications for prostate cancer therapy in individual cases